I suppose it's time to step onto dangerous ground (journalistically speaking) and cover a more controversial subject. Today I'm going to dive into one of the most heated and debated subjects in the history of Yu-Gi-Oh!. I think it's time to get to the bottom of an age-old battle: Are Yu-Gi-Oh! champions successful because of Luck, Money or Skill? I'll cover all the angles, I’ll look at all the options, and I'm going to guarantee up-front that you won't like the results.
From Merriam-Webster:
Luck
1 a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual
Anyone who wants to deny the presence of luck in a card game is nuts. However, just how big the role luck plays in the winning a large event like Regionals, Nationals or Worlds is another question entirely.
I don't want to get into combinatory mathematics, but in the interest of giving the reader a fair shake and at least a little usable information, I'm going to list a few ratios. Copies refer to the number of copies of a wanted card you have left in your deck. Size is the total number of cards left in the deck.
So, assuming you're down to 20 cards in your deck, and you NEED a DDWL, and have 3 left. You'll only draw one 15 times out of 100. To me, that doesn’t seem like winning odds. I wouldn’t bet money on that draw.
So how can luck be such a factor? Here’s one possible answer: there are multiple cards in your deck that can produce a favorable outcome for any particular situation. Suppose you’re staring down a Black Luster Soldier. You might have the following cards left in your deck: Change of Heart, Snatch Steal, 2x DD Warrior Lady, 2x Enemy Controller, 2x Smashing Ground, Creature Swap and your own Black Luster Soldier. That’s 10 cards out of the remaining 20 or a 50% chance of drawing a useful card. Those are MUCH better odds, ones that I’d be more inclined to bet on. If one of the remaining cards is Pot of Greed and you draw it, then you get an additional 2 cards which will increase your chances even more.
So how important is luck? It’s not as important as many people think. As we’ve seen above, you can maximize your “lucky top decks” by putting more multi-purpose cards in your deck. But deck building is a factor under skill, not luck. I’m confident that luck only accounts for at most, 20% of success in Yu-Gi-Oh!. Believe me, that’s a generous percentage.
Money
Money *is* a factor in the game of Yu-Gi-Oh! Packs cost about $4 plus tax and you get 1 Rare card and 8 commons per pack. How do you accumulate a large card base? Is it true Royal Decree and Needle Worms sell on eBay for over $150 a piece? How can you assemble a championship deck on a limited budget?
In the old days, (LOB - PSV), there was not near the after-market availability of cards as there is now. If you wanted to get the powerful Ultra Rare cards like Mirror Force, Goblin Attack Force, Summoned Skull, etc. you needed to buy a lot of packs, or get some incredible rip-off trades or pay top dollar.
The number one complaint topics at one online Yu-Gi-Oh! board was “rich kids” who had their parents buy every super-powerful card. Who could beat them? Who could compete with that? Well, in truth, anyone with half a brain. Smart players beat good cards 66% of the time. Sure, they’ll overpower you 1 game out 3, but you should be able to win the match.
How do you accumulate a large card base? By making sure you squeeze every pennies worth of cards out of every dollar you spend. Look for sales. Often Upper Deck will print a “Second Edition” box that will include a bonus card. The beauty of these multi-pack boxes is that they usually cost less than if you bought the 3 or 5 packs separately.
Yes it is true, Royal Decree sells for $150++ on eBay, but how many Tournament winning decks run Royal Decree or Needle Worm? Not many. I’d guess maybe 1 out of 100. I had a friend buy a complete Deck Destruction deck on eBay for $350. A steal when you consider the cost of the 3 TP3 Needle Worms, the TP2 Morphing Jar, and all the other goodies in the deck. This was a very expensive deck! It didn’t win very much. I myself ran a Horus deck with a few Horus the Black Fame Dragon LV8 ($40 a piece), 3 Royal Decree’s ($150 a piece) and a bunch of other expensive cards. You’d think a deck worth over $600 would win every game. It didn’t. It was disassembled and the cards sold.
How do you assemble a championship deck on a budget? Players rejoice! We’ve had Starter Decks for a long time. But unfortunately they provided nothing more than a small starting point for players. Then the "˜evo’ Starter Decks were released. They brought only a few more good cards to everyone. Was that enough? No! We needed Dark Beginnings I. With DB1, many hard-to-get short print commons, Super Rare, Ultra Rare, Secret Rare and other out-of-print cards became easily available, most at lower rarities. Soon after DB1 was released the English market got another gift: 2 new Structure Decks called Dragon’s Roar and Zombie Madness. These Structure Decks are much more than Starter Decks. They are completely playable right out of the box with incredible cards like Vampire Lord, Heavy Storm, Premature Burial, Creature Swap, Call of the Haunted, Torrential Tribute and many more released as commons in these decks. Dragon’s Roar and Zombie Madness are easily the best pre-con decks ever released for the English game.
Everything I’m saying is based on the assumption that anyone getting into the game understands that they’ll have to shell out at least $20 to get started, $50 to be competitive. Honestly, buying one each of the new Structure Decks and one each of the Evo Starter Decks would give any new player enough cards, especially staples (must-have cards that every deck needs), to make top-8 at almost any Traditional or Advanced format tournament.
When someone tells me they couldn’t win a tournament because they couldn’t get (i.e. afford) the good cards they need to win, I have a hard time believing it. I’ll argue that money accounts for only 10% of Yu-Gi-Oh! success.
Skill
Perhaps the most intangible element I’m going to discuss today is Skill. Many different aspects of skill combine in Yu-Gi-Oh! There’s deck building, card manipulation, game-play instincts and rules knowledge. Some players have mastered all of these aspects. Some players have not mastered any.
Deck Building is the assembly of 40 (or more) cards designed to work together or separately towards a common goal. That goal could be Exodia, Beatdown, FINAL, lockdown or more than a dozen other deck specialties. Since we have over 1,000 cards available in the English game there are countless combinations possible. Not all deck types have the same level of support. For example, build a Warrior deck and match it up against your best Plant deck and watch the Plant deck lose almost every time. Proper deck building will reduce bad hands and poor top decks. A deck with the proper synergy will have the advantage over a random deck. (Un?) Fortunately with the abundance of Internet discussion boards, finding a winning deck list is easy and has perhaps minimized the need for excellent deck building skills.
Card Manipulation is also a skill. I’m not talking about cheating or stacking your deck. I’m talking about the way you shuffle. This includes your opponent’s cards as well as your own. How do you hold your hand? How do you draw your cards? An experienced card player will always manage their hand and deck in a defensive manner. I’ve seen players play Painful Choice, then set their hand face-up on the table while searching through their deck. How foolish! Don’t cry if your opponent opens the game with all 5 pieces of Exodia the Forbidden One. You have the opportunity to shuffle and cut their deck. Make the most of it.
Game-play instincts are also very important. Knowing when to set your DD Warrior Lady instead of playing her in ATK position depends on the situation, the opponent and your play style. Setting one monster, then setting 5 Spells/Traps is not a very smart move unless you’re sure you can protect them. Once a duelist at our store started the game by summoning Lord of D., then played Flute of Summoning Dragon to bring out two Blue Eyes White Dragons, then set his other 2 Spell/Traps only to get Heavy Stormed, Dark Holed and locked by Yata-Garasu. That’s just not smart play. You have to know what to play and what to hold. You also have to take a measure of your opponent. Bluffing is also a part of Yu-Gi-Oh!. I once held off an opponent for 3 turns by setting a Spell card called Metamorphosis, then smiling and saying how much I love Mirror Force.
Rules knowledge is another important skill item. A player’s first responsibility is to know the official rulings and errata for the cards in their own deck. Beyond that they need to know the game phases, spell speeds and basic game mechanics. This includes knowing that Torrential Tribute won’t stop Mobius the Frost Monarch’s effect and using Solemn Judgment against Vampire Lord ensures that it will be back during their next standby phase. Priority issues are usually debated, so are activation timing issues. Not to be snobbish or elitist, but if you don’t know why you can’t use Bottomless Trap Hole against a DD Warrior Lady Special Summoned to the field by a Shining Angel killed in battle then you need to read the Rule Booklet a few more times. Version 5 of the Rule Booklet (included in the Dragon’s Roar and Zombie Madness Structure Decks) has been updated and is quite good. I’ll have to tell you honestly that Skill accounts for 70% of Yu-Gi-Oh! success.
I know many people are not going to agree with the percentages I’ve assigned. I know this article would be controversial. That’s OK with me. The bottom line is that Skill and Skill alone is the overwhelming influence to being successful in the game of Yu-Gi-Oh! That won’t sit well with people who are always looking for an excuse to why they lose. Sure, there’s still game-winning top decks, uber-powerful cards and perfect hands pulled, but that can only account for a small percentage (20% tops) of wins or losses.
Yu-Gi-Oh! is a thinking person’s game. It’s not like euchre where we all play with the same cards and it depends mostly on the luck of the deal and what gets turned up as trump. As a Yu-Gi-Oh! duelist you’re in charge of your destiny. You have the power to create a masterpiece or a disaster. I firmly believe that hard study and smart play can lead ANY duelist to greater success.
Enjoy!
From Merriam-Webster:
Luck
1 a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual
Anyone who wants to deny the presence of luck in a card game is nuts. However, just how big the role luck plays in the winning a large event like Regionals, Nationals or Worlds is another question entirely.
I don't want to get into combinatory mathematics, but in the interest of giving the reader a fair shake and at least a little usable information, I'm going to list a few ratios. Copies refer to the number of copies of a wanted card you have left in your deck. Size is the total number of cards left in the deck.
Code:
Size --- 45 40 35 30 25 20
Copies
1 2.22% 2.5% 2.86% 3.33% 4% 5%
2 4.44% 5% 5.71% 6.66% 8% 10%
3 6.66% 7.5% 8.57% 9.99% 12% 15%So, assuming you're down to 20 cards in your deck, and you NEED a DDWL, and have 3 left. You'll only draw one 15 times out of 100. To me, that doesn’t seem like winning odds. I wouldn’t bet money on that draw.
So how can luck be such a factor? Here’s one possible answer: there are multiple cards in your deck that can produce a favorable outcome for any particular situation. Suppose you’re staring down a Black Luster Soldier. You might have the following cards left in your deck: Change of Heart, Snatch Steal, 2x DD Warrior Lady, 2x Enemy Controller, 2x Smashing Ground, Creature Swap and your own Black Luster Soldier. That’s 10 cards out of the remaining 20 or a 50% chance of drawing a useful card. Those are MUCH better odds, ones that I’d be more inclined to bet on. If one of the remaining cards is Pot of Greed and you draw it, then you get an additional 2 cards which will increase your chances even more.
So how important is luck? It’s not as important as many people think. As we’ve seen above, you can maximize your “lucky top decks” by putting more multi-purpose cards in your deck. But deck building is a factor under skill, not luck. I’m confident that luck only accounts for at most, 20% of success in Yu-Gi-Oh!. Believe me, that’s a generous percentage.
Money
Money *is* a factor in the game of Yu-Gi-Oh! Packs cost about $4 plus tax and you get 1 Rare card and 8 commons per pack. How do you accumulate a large card base? Is it true Royal Decree and Needle Worms sell on eBay for over $150 a piece? How can you assemble a championship deck on a limited budget?
In the old days, (LOB - PSV), there was not near the after-market availability of cards as there is now. If you wanted to get the powerful Ultra Rare cards like Mirror Force, Goblin Attack Force, Summoned Skull, etc. you needed to buy a lot of packs, or get some incredible rip-off trades or pay top dollar.
The number one complaint topics at one online Yu-Gi-Oh! board was “rich kids” who had their parents buy every super-powerful card. Who could beat them? Who could compete with that? Well, in truth, anyone with half a brain. Smart players beat good cards 66% of the time. Sure, they’ll overpower you 1 game out 3, but you should be able to win the match.
How do you accumulate a large card base? By making sure you squeeze every pennies worth of cards out of every dollar you spend. Look for sales. Often Upper Deck will print a “Second Edition” box that will include a bonus card. The beauty of these multi-pack boxes is that they usually cost less than if you bought the 3 or 5 packs separately.
Yes it is true, Royal Decree sells for $150++ on eBay, but how many Tournament winning decks run Royal Decree or Needle Worm? Not many. I’d guess maybe 1 out of 100. I had a friend buy a complete Deck Destruction deck on eBay for $350. A steal when you consider the cost of the 3 TP3 Needle Worms, the TP2 Morphing Jar, and all the other goodies in the deck. This was a very expensive deck! It didn’t win very much. I myself ran a Horus deck with a few Horus the Black Fame Dragon LV8 ($40 a piece), 3 Royal Decree’s ($150 a piece) and a bunch of other expensive cards. You’d think a deck worth over $600 would win every game. It didn’t. It was disassembled and the cards sold.
How do you assemble a championship deck on a budget? Players rejoice! We’ve had Starter Decks for a long time. But unfortunately they provided nothing more than a small starting point for players. Then the "˜evo’ Starter Decks were released. They brought only a few more good cards to everyone. Was that enough? No! We needed Dark Beginnings I. With DB1, many hard-to-get short print commons, Super Rare, Ultra Rare, Secret Rare and other out-of-print cards became easily available, most at lower rarities. Soon after DB1 was released the English market got another gift: 2 new Structure Decks called Dragon’s Roar and Zombie Madness. These Structure Decks are much more than Starter Decks. They are completely playable right out of the box with incredible cards like Vampire Lord, Heavy Storm, Premature Burial, Creature Swap, Call of the Haunted, Torrential Tribute and many more released as commons in these decks. Dragon’s Roar and Zombie Madness are easily the best pre-con decks ever released for the English game.
Everything I’m saying is based on the assumption that anyone getting into the game understands that they’ll have to shell out at least $20 to get started, $50 to be competitive. Honestly, buying one each of the new Structure Decks and one each of the Evo Starter Decks would give any new player enough cards, especially staples (must-have cards that every deck needs), to make top-8 at almost any Traditional or Advanced format tournament.
When someone tells me they couldn’t win a tournament because they couldn’t get (i.e. afford) the good cards they need to win, I have a hard time believing it. I’ll argue that money accounts for only 10% of Yu-Gi-Oh! success.
Skill
Perhaps the most intangible element I’m going to discuss today is Skill. Many different aspects of skill combine in Yu-Gi-Oh! There’s deck building, card manipulation, game-play instincts and rules knowledge. Some players have mastered all of these aspects. Some players have not mastered any.
Deck Building is the assembly of 40 (or more) cards designed to work together or separately towards a common goal. That goal could be Exodia, Beatdown, FINAL, lockdown or more than a dozen other deck specialties. Since we have over 1,000 cards available in the English game there are countless combinations possible. Not all deck types have the same level of support. For example, build a Warrior deck and match it up against your best Plant deck and watch the Plant deck lose almost every time. Proper deck building will reduce bad hands and poor top decks. A deck with the proper synergy will have the advantage over a random deck. (Un?) Fortunately with the abundance of Internet discussion boards, finding a winning deck list is easy and has perhaps minimized the need for excellent deck building skills.
Card Manipulation is also a skill. I’m not talking about cheating or stacking your deck. I’m talking about the way you shuffle. This includes your opponent’s cards as well as your own. How do you hold your hand? How do you draw your cards? An experienced card player will always manage their hand and deck in a defensive manner. I’ve seen players play Painful Choice, then set their hand face-up on the table while searching through their deck. How foolish! Don’t cry if your opponent opens the game with all 5 pieces of Exodia the Forbidden One. You have the opportunity to shuffle and cut their deck. Make the most of it.
Game-play instincts are also very important. Knowing when to set your DD Warrior Lady instead of playing her in ATK position depends on the situation, the opponent and your play style. Setting one monster, then setting 5 Spells/Traps is not a very smart move unless you’re sure you can protect them. Once a duelist at our store started the game by summoning Lord of D., then played Flute of Summoning Dragon to bring out two Blue Eyes White Dragons, then set his other 2 Spell/Traps only to get Heavy Stormed, Dark Holed and locked by Yata-Garasu. That’s just not smart play. You have to know what to play and what to hold. You also have to take a measure of your opponent. Bluffing is also a part of Yu-Gi-Oh!. I once held off an opponent for 3 turns by setting a Spell card called Metamorphosis, then smiling and saying how much I love Mirror Force.
Rules knowledge is another important skill item. A player’s first responsibility is to know the official rulings and errata for the cards in their own deck. Beyond that they need to know the game phases, spell speeds and basic game mechanics. This includes knowing that Torrential Tribute won’t stop Mobius the Frost Monarch’s effect and using Solemn Judgment against Vampire Lord ensures that it will be back during their next standby phase. Priority issues are usually debated, so are activation timing issues. Not to be snobbish or elitist, but if you don’t know why you can’t use Bottomless Trap Hole against a DD Warrior Lady Special Summoned to the field by a Shining Angel killed in battle then you need to read the Rule Booklet a few more times. Version 5 of the Rule Booklet (included in the Dragon’s Roar and Zombie Madness Structure Decks) has been updated and is quite good. I’ll have to tell you honestly that Skill accounts for 70% of Yu-Gi-Oh! success.
I know many people are not going to agree with the percentages I’ve assigned. I know this article would be controversial. That’s OK with me. The bottom line is that Skill and Skill alone is the overwhelming influence to being successful in the game of Yu-Gi-Oh! That won’t sit well with people who are always looking for an excuse to why they lose. Sure, there’s still game-winning top decks, uber-powerful cards and perfect hands pulled, but that can only account for a small percentage (20% tops) of wins or losses.
Yu-Gi-Oh! is a thinking person’s game. It’s not like euchre where we all play with the same cards and it depends mostly on the luck of the deal and what gets turned up as trump. As a Yu-Gi-Oh! duelist you’re in charge of your destiny. You have the power to create a masterpiece or a disaster. I firmly believe that hard study and smart play can lead ANY duelist to greater success.
Enjoy!
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